Jerusalem vs Mombasa

In their biggest game of the year, so far, Mombasa’s stars shined and showed they were a step above. Will and Dean were drawing defenders out and finishing at the basket all game. Jerusalem will need a plan to keep them contained. The help defense needs to be a bigger factor because Mombasa had too much space at the top of the key to go around defenders. The frontcourt of Mike, Mahrooz and Fares will be able to cover space in the paint but one of the guards needs to follow Dean all game and not let him get open threes early in the play.

On the other end, Mike has been playing at a different level all year. It’s a challenge to contest Mike close to the basket when he rises up and hangs in the air. Assuming Will takes the matchup, he’ll have to be physical with Mike and play him tight enough to limit his space to get up. It will be risky, though, as Mike has been gotten to the line 25 times in the playoffs. Mahrooz has 7 assists in both games as well. Mombasa has to try and deny him off ball to try and limit his ability to impact the game within its flow.

If Elias is not available, I think it will be difficult for Mombasa to match Jerusalem’s size. If everyone plays, Mombasa’s guards are deep and skilled enough to give them the edge.

Mombasa by 5

Gaza vs Beirut

Last time these teams matched up, it was a low scoring game. Between Omar, Fursan and Brandon, Gaza has very good individual answers for Beirut. Beirut will come with adjustments but the question is how they choose to respond. They may have a plan to use more coordinated off ball movement and passing to put defenders in conflict instead of attacking straight on. Or they can rely on players like Amir Hassan and Jojo to make the initial defensive breakdown.

Gaza has only scored in the 60s once this season in their only loss, which shows how much control they’ve had over the pace of their games. Omar has given them a high floor first option offensively, and Beirut knows they need to do a better job playing up without letting him get by. Fursan has been consistently in double digits as well. Last week I said they’d need good shooting from Islam and Moatze who combined to go 0-9 from three so they are due for a bounce back. Samih Abbassi has been locked in from three as well if he shows up.

Beirut’s defense stood out last week and this is setting up to be a great game. However, it’s too difficult to pick against Gaza’s defense which matches up well with Beirut’s top players.

Gaza by 2